The Future of PREDICTION

Access to water for communities can be a source of grievance and unrest, and in times of fast-moving climate change and demographic shifts, we require timely and targeted early warning of critical moments of water depletion. We are exploring interdisciplinary approaches, such as remote sensing and Machine Learning, to develop early warning of potential crises and works closely with external partners and policymakers, including in governments, to provide recommendations on options for early action.

For example, a pilot project on the application of satellite imagery analysis for early warning of water-security related unrest in a key conflict region covered by the Department is currently being developed by the DPPA Innovation Cell and its technical partners, in close collaboration with counterparts of the concerned Special Political Mission, the UN Country Team, the Climate Security Mechanism and the UN Geospatial Information Section. By examining supply- and demand-side water changes throughout history by various administrative levels and developing a model to estimate future trends against conflict risk indicators, the methodology aims to imbed geospatial analysis of water-related conflict prediction for the Department.